India’s Role in Afghanistan Post-Taliban Takeover: Assessing Strategic Interests, Challenges and Opportunities

By Amey Velangi

Afghanistan has been a land of graveyards of empires since colonial times. Britishers, Soviets, Americans, Pakistanis, Taliban, and some titbits in the timeline of civilian governments have had their chance of trying to tame the untameable. But the continuous change in the governing bodies, having different geopolitical interests has cut off the country from its own nature. It has prevented its society from evolving according to global changes, keeping it aloof from the latest developments in social, economic, technological, and political spheres of growth and prosperity. These persistent political transitions were violent, heinous, and brutal on common Afghans, making them vulnerable to such desperate conditions. The war-torn conditions have made the country disabled in its capacity and have restricted it from enjoying the fruits of evolution human beings have achieved.

Introduction: The Taliban 2.0

The Taliban’s swift takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 after the hurried withdrawal by the Americans, has sent shockwaves through the international community. Though it forced the global community to rethink its approach, it was quite a palpable outcome, as the Afghan civilian government was losing each city to the Taliban one by one. The return of the Taliban was obvious since most of the nations were well aware of the inherent dependence of the Afghan government on the Americans for their security. Taliban 2.0 in Afghanistan was seen to be more liberal and progressive in its outlook than Taliban 1.0 in 1996. But this is a half-baked truth. The technological ingress into society has been to an extent, normalised, but the social code of conduct has been unchanged. Especially the appalling conditions of women and children (Prakash).

All this has forced India to recalibrate its long-standing engagement with the war-torn nation. But considering India has enjoyed a unique connection when it comes to Afghanistan it becomes much more difficult for it to take an extreme stance. The social and cultural linkages with the nation make it an asset in some cases, but it may also turn into a liability when it comes to engaging with the nation as a whole after the Taliban takeover. India being an emerging power in the region has to redefine its role in Afghanistan, by assessing its strategic interests, challenges, and future prospects.

Strategic Interests: A Legacy of Developments and Security Concerns

Historically, India has viewed a stable and peaceful Afghanistan as crucial for regional security and a bulwark against Pakistan’s influence. But the Taliban takeover has changed the whole equation back to square one. India’s strategic interests in Afghanistan are multifaceted.

Political observers have viewed Afghanistan as the security gate for South Asia. Anything happening in Afghanistan would ring the alarm bells in the region. The Taliban government, considering its governing philosophy, would unleash the Islamic orthodoxical elements back to normal, which were tamed by the Americans earlier. This would again help these elements to create Afghanistan into a capital of extremism, radicalism, and terrorism (Thomas). This would certainly not be in India’s interests.

Pakistan has always tried to create strategic depth in Afghanistan. Considering India as its major rival, it has tried to diminish India’s goodwill strength in Afghanistan, through its radicalised militancy tactic, making the Pashtuns the jihadi group, training them for war against the Soviet Union, Americans, the Afghan government, and also for their gains in Kashmir (Ahmed). Although this strategy has failed miserably, since the Taliban arrived in Kabul, they still have major stakes in Afghanistan that are protected by the Haqqani network and their warlords. This Pakistani factor has major implications for India’s strategic interests in the nation.

Over the past two decades, India invested heavily in Afghanistan’s reconstruction efforts, providing over $3 billion in aid for infrastructure development, education, and healthcare. These investments fostered goodwill with the Afghan people and established India as a key development partner. Taliban’s Islamic fundamentalist ideology has been a major impediment to infrastructure development. India’s developmental initiatives have so far been safe up until now, but the other groups that are not in allegiance to the Taliban’s version of Islamic sharia would be a major threat to India’s strategic ambitions (Mansfield).

As Afghanistan’s geographic location is the key to trade with Central Asia, India’s relations with them would substantially depend on the happenings in Afghanistan. India has major trade-related ambitions with the Central Asian nations, especially for their rich resource base, fossil fuel, natural gas, minerals, etc, and also to counter the Chinese influence in the region. Therefore, taking the Taliban regime into confidence would be crucial for Indian diplomats in Kabul.

A key strategic concern not just for India, but also for the whole region and world at large is the potential resurgence of terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), Islamic State- Khorasan (IS-K) and such other Islamic fundamentalist groups that have the potential to create this region the new Iraq and Syria of the world (Rubin). With links to Pakistan, which still has some strings in its hands to control such groups can divert it towards India to carry out attacks on Indian soil. The inability of the Taliban to control Afghanistan could pose a direct threat to India’s security interests.

The Challenge of Engaging a New Regime

India’s engagement with the Taliban presents a complex set of challenges. The Taliban’s human rights record, particularly towards women and marginalised groups, is a major concern. India has traditionally advocated for an inclusive and democratic government in Afghanistan, which appears at odds with the Taliban’s current leadership structure.

Furthermore, the Taliban’s close ties with Pakistan create a strategic dilemma for India. Engaging the Taliban risks strengthening Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan, a prospect India has long sought to counter. Additionally, the Taliban’s ability to control extremist elements within its ranks remains an open question (Schroden). Also, the uncertain geopolitical landscape, with competing interests of regional powers like Pakistan and China, complicates India’s approach (Gill). Balancing its strategic interests, such as maintaining influence in Afghanistan and countering Pakistan’s sway over the Taliban, while safeguarding its security concerns, demands a nuanced and cautious diplomatic strategy from India.

A Pragmatic Approach to Navigate the Uncertain Landscape

In the face of these challenges, India has adopted a cautious and pragmatic approach. While it has not formally recognised the Taliban regime, India has engaged in limited diplomatic interactions. This includes facilitating humanitarian aid deliveries and maintaining a “technical team” in Kabul to monitor the situation.

This approach reflects India’s desire to maintain a degree of influence in Afghanistan and preserve the gains made during the past two decades. It also acknowledges the current reality on the ground – the Taliban is the de facto power in Afghanistan (Basit). However, a major criticism that India is facing today is from advocates of democracy in the Afghan civilian government. They are unhappy with New Delhi’s approach vis-à-vis their stance on Afghan-led, Afghan-owned, and Afghan-governed Afghanistan. There is a perception that India has given up this stance due to the structural challenges that are present, leading to which it has adopted a pragmatic stance based on its national interests (Aghazade).

Opportunities for Cooperation

Despite the challenges, potential opportunities exist for India to cooperate with the Taliban. Furthermore, regional connectivity projects hold promise. India’s vision for a trade and transit corridor connecting Central Asia with South Asia, bypassing Pakistan, could be revived if Afghanistan receives international support for infrastructure development. This aligns with the Taliban’s expressed desire for economic development and integration with the global economy.

Firstly, India has a long history of engagement with Afghanistan, marked by significant investments in infrastructure, education, healthcare, and capacity-building projects. These initiatives have earned India goodwill among the Afghan people and have positioned it as a trusted partner for reconstruction and development efforts (Wong). Despite the Taliban’s return to power, these existing ties provide a foundation for continued collaboration, potentially enabling India to play a constructive role in Afghanistan’s stabilisation and reconstruction.

Secondly, India possesses considerable soft power in Afghanistan, owing to cultural, historical, and people-to-people connections. Indian films, music, and literature enjoy popularity in Afghanistan, fostering a sense of affinity and goodwill towards India among the Afghan populace. Leveraging this soft power can help India maintain influence and goodwill, even under the Taliban regime (Ahmad). The dire humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan demands a coordinated international response. India’s continued food and medical aid provision could create goodwill and establish a platform for further engagement. This would strengthen India’s position of values and principles that it has always sided with when it came to Afghanistan’s future.

Thirdly, India has an opportunity to engage with regional and international stakeholders to shape the Afghan peace process. As a key member of regional groupings such as the Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), India can contribute constructively to efforts aimed at promoting peace, stability, and reconciliation in Afghanistan (Mir). By coordinating with other regional powers, including Iran, Russia, and Central Asian countries, India can amplify its diplomatic efforts and advance its strategic interests in Afghanistan.

Moreover, India’s strategic partnership with the United States provides an avenue for cooperation in Afghanistan. Both countries share concerns about terrorism emanating from the region and have a mutual interest in preventing Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for terrorist groups. Continued coordination with the U.S. and other like-minded nations can help India navigate the complexities of the Taliban regime and safeguard its security interests. Furthermore, India can explore economic opportunities in Afghanistan, particularly in sectors such as mining, energy, and agriculture. Afghanistan’s vast mineral wealth presents opportunities for Indian companies to invest in resource extraction projects, contributing to both countries’ economic development (Wong).

Overall, while the Taliban’s resurgence poses challenges for India’s engagement in Afghanistan, the country still retains several avenues to pursue its interests, ranging from diplomatic and soft power initiatives to economic cooperation and regional partnerships. By leveraging these opportunities effectively, India can mitigate risks and advance its strategic objectives in Afghanistan amidst evolving geopolitical dynamics.

The Role of Soft Power and Strategic Interests

India possesses significant soft power in Afghanistan, stemming from shared cultural, historical, and people-to-people ties. Leveraging this soft power can be instrumental in advancing India’s strategic interests in the region. The country can use its cultural influence to foster goodwill and strengthen ties with the Afghan people. Indian films, music, and literature enjoy widespread popularity in Afghanistan, providing a platform for cultural diplomacy and enhancing India’s image as a benevolent and culturally rich nation (Ahmad).

India can leverage its expertise in education and capacity-building to support human capital development in Afghanistan. By expanding scholarships and educational opportunities for Afghan students in Indian universities and institutions, India can contribute to Afghanistan’s long-term development and nurture a generation of Afghan leaders with positive perceptions of India. This could serve as a hedge against future political uncertainties and lay the groundwork for a more stable and prosperous Afghanistan (Tat).

Overall, by strategically harnessing its soft power assets, India is not just enhancing its influence and advancing its strategic interests in Afghanistan, but also playing a contributing role to regional stability and prosperity.

The Way Forward: A Cautious Balancing Act

India’s future role in Afghanistan will depend on its ability to navigate a delicate balancing act. India will need to remain vigilant about security threats emanating from Afghanistan while simultaneously engaging with the Taliban on a pragmatic basis. Focusing on humanitarian aid, regional connectivity, and people-to-people ties can offer a path forward for India’s continued relevance in post-Taliban Afghanistan, but it also be mindful of the other big powers in the region who compete to oust India from Afghanistan (Bajoria).

Looking Ahead: Unanswered Questions and Long-Term Considerations

Several key questions remain unanswered. Will the Taliban be able to maintain control over Afghanistan? How will the regional dynamics evolve? Can India foster a productive relationship with the Taliban regime? These questions will shape the course of India’s engagement with Afghanistan in the years to come.

In the long term, India’s role in Afghanistan will be measured by its ability to contribute to a sustainable peace process that addresses the core issues of security, human rights, and economic development. This will require working with the international community and regional players to create a stable and prosperous Afghanistan that serves the interests of all its citizens.

Conclusion

The Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan presents both challenges and opportunities for India. By adopting a cautious but pragmatic approach, India can safeguard its strategic interests, contribute to regional security, and build a long-term partnership with the Afghan people. It can use the current rift between Pakistan and the Taliban to safeguard its interests and secure a protective cover for India’s developmental aspirations. It can also secure the Taliban’s protective assurance in case of other terror groups targeting Indian interests in Afghanistan or India.

As India navigates the evolving geopolitical landscape in the region, maintaining a balanced approach that prioritises diplomatic engagement, economic cooperation, and security interests will be essential. By seizing opportunities for constructive engagement and building upon shared historical and cultural ties, India can play a positive role in shaping Afghanistan’s future while advancing its own strategic objectives in the region. The path forward will be fraught with uncertainties, but India’s commitment to a stable and prosperous Afghanistan remains a cornerstone of its strategic vision for the region.

References

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Ahmed, Imran. “Institute of South Asia – One Year of Taliban Rule.” 2022. National University of Singapore. 2022.

Bajoria, Jayshree. “India-Afghanistan relations.” 2009. Council on Foreign Relations. 

Basit, Abdul. “Why did India open a backchannel to the Taliban?” Al Jazeera 2021.

Gill, Don McLain. “India, the Taliban, and the Country In Between.” The Diplomat 2022.

Mansfield, David. “A Taxing Narrative: Miscalculating Revenues and Misunderstanding the Conflict in Afghanistan.” Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (2021).

Mir, Tricia Bacon and Asfandyar. “India’s Gamble in Afghanistan.” 2022. Foreign Affairs. 

Prakash, Bhaswat. “Afghanistan Crisis and The Global Impact with Effect to Taliban Take Over.” DY Patil University, Pune (2021).

Rubin, Barnett. “Turmoil in the Taliban.” New Yorker 2021.

Schroden, Jonathan. “Afghanistan Security Forces Versus the Taliban: A Net Assessment.” CTC Sentinel 2021.

Tat, Urmi. “Soft power, India’s strength in Afghanistan.” 2021. The Indian Express. 

Thomas, Clayton. “Taliban Government in Afghanistan: Background and Issues for Congress.” 2021.

Wong, Dharanidharan Sivagnanaselvam and Brian. “India and the Taliban: The Case for Constructive Engagement.” 2021. The Wire.

Additional Information

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Competing Interests

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