By Sanchaly Bhattacharya
The emergence of new powerful countries has significantly changed the view about the erstwhile power equations in the world. The new global order neither shows the sign of bipolarity nor indicates the sustainability of the hegemonic powers shortly. The bloc division between the West (the US and countries of the Western Europe) and the East, led by Russia and China has been complemented by many regional powers as well. As opined by Kochhar, emerging powers with the fastest growing economy and strengthening of military arsenals slowly but steadily influence the decisions in different international fora. Moreover, the declining relevance of large-scale institutions like the World Bank, WHO, and others and the recent shifting of the focus to regional and amorphous formations such as APEC, ASEAN, and BRICS have indicated the rising powers of the regional players.
In the article written by C. Raja Mohan, a strategic analyst based in India, titled “The New Global Disorder”, he clearly stated that the focus of the international community has shifted from the West to the East. The Western countries have started to make their friendship with Eastern countries more profound and effective. He quoted in the same article in this context, “The shifting regional dynamic to the east and west of India needs a more nimble, flexible and open-ended diplomacy from New Delhi”. In fact, in the awakening of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the nations are rebalancing their treaties.
For instance, the recent Germany-Japan convergence to coordinate their policy regarding Russia’s incursion and will take initiatives to reduce the dependence on the China-led supply chains. Moving forward, the US has also gained confidence in the new government of the Philippines and revived the partnership to counter the Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and Taiwan. However, India’s Quad cannot be considered a balance against Chinese incursions, as it is a non-security nature of formation. The Indian concept of partnership is not directly based on making allies for the contingency period. Therefore, the BoP concept can be considered as more of a militaristic approach for countering any immediate or futuristic threats from the country.
Indo-Pacific Region – Under the Vulnerable Condition of the Volatile Power Equations
The volatility of the changing power equations has developed new regional orders to define diplomatic relations and regional security aspects. Due to the changing power play theatre, the Indo-Pacific area has become one of the most vulnerable and diplomatic concerns for many countries. The interconnectivity between the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific has become palpable in contemporary times from both the geopolitics as well as security perspectives.
Most of the countries like the ASEAN countries, Japan, Australia and India have reiterated a free and open Indo-Pacific against the growing militaristic dominance of China in the region. This is a vital shift in India’s strategic thought, as for decades the country has focused on its own land and maritime borders, but in the Asian century and as the fifth largest economy, India has started to ascertain its crucial role in South-East Asia, under the Act East Policy (Singh, 67).
In coordination with the ASEAN countries, India, on the one hand, counters the Chinese activities in the regions, and on the other forms of QUAD, with Australia, Japan, and the USA, has brought much relevance to the fact that China is not the only power in this region. The ASEAN countries have leveraged India’s presence in the region by embracing crucial partnerships for trade, cultural ties, and so on, as the countries of East Asia are increasingly dependent on the natural resources of West Asia and Africa via the Indian Ocean and the West is also appreciating India’s footprint in the same because of seeing India as the regional balancer of China.
The claim of some particular islands in the South China Sea has raised concern over the Chinese rationality and intention over the other’s territorial sovereignty. China’s irrational claims over India’s prominent territories near the Line of Actual Control have raised the issue over and again on international platforms. The Galwan Valley clash over the UT of Ladakh, since 2020, has left no doubt over the long-term autocratic intention of China. The rising dominance of China and India’s difficult time due to the presence of a ‘stealth superpower’ in the immediate neighbourhood is a prominent strategic concern. This imbalance in the BoP equations has put in the Thucydides trap the likelihood of conflict or a long-term conflicting situation will survive.
The increased regional imperatives of China since 2013 have also gotten its impetus through the new regional trade and investment initiative, namely the Belt and Road Initiative. The figure has demonstrated the planned route for the initiative, led by China, has repeatedly ‘raised concerns’ regarding the actual purpose of this initiative to isolate the Indian subcontinent from its neighbourhood. The decline of India’s influence over the region and the debt trap of China have exposed the realm of this initiative. Though, New Delhi has consistently tried to strengthen its relations with its neighbours. For example, the grants given to Sri Lanka after the recent collapse of the economy in that country and endorsement of the engagements under the “Neighbourhood First policy” and the “Act East policies” is a successful example in this regard.
India’s Position in the Recent Changes in Power Equations and the Applicability of the Concept in the Indian Context
With the largest democracy in the world and the fastest-growing economy, India has already started to shift from non-aligned to multiple-alignment. As stated by Dr. S. Jaishankar, the foreign minister of India, in his book “The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World”, the country has faced challenges on multiple fronts, and this is not very different from the past challenges, only these are more complex; thus India’s way of policy responses have been evolved over the period and based on the past experiences (Jaishankar, 192). It is clear that India has a resilient economy, and ascertains its strategic autonomy, which seems to be a viable decision.
With the recent stands on the Russia-Ukraine conflicts, India has kept itself abstain from voting against Russia in the UN. The frequent visit of Xi Jinping to Moscow signalled the strengthening and widening of the Sino-Russian Partnerships.
The US has recently embraced India’s strategic role in the Indo-Pacific Ocean by saying the country is a net security provider in the region. The current flow of focus in the Indian strategic community has shifted from the land boundary to the maritime boundary. China is vulnerable in the Indian Ocean if India starts to play an active role in it. Moreover, countering the Belt and Road initiative of China, India has also developed the International North-South Transport Corridor, which will include multimodal connectivity and through the Chahbar Port of Iran, India can access Afghanistan, Central Asian countries, Europe and Russian resources. Therefore, India’s strategic analyst Raja Mohan has opined that the conventional thought about Europe and Asia, despite having the twins, can never meet, will be proved wrong within a half-decade, because the separation of the two theatres has started to break down.
Conclusion
With the multiple nodes of the relations among the states and due to the complicated terms of relations, it is much more difficult to have a non-aligned approach for any country. In the context of the South Asian region, India has a distinct strategic advantage owing to geopolitical leverage, having a shared border with most of the states in the region. Having the correct approach to foreign policy can provide India with an advantageous position in the region. The dominance of China, as an erratic regime, may not be longer sustained as many countries have over and again expressed their concern for Chinese incursion. Hence, India, by implying the multi-alignment can be one of the major powers to influence international decisions in favour of the global south in general and the least developed countries, in particular.
Additional Information
Publisher’s Note: Phadke Journal of Strategic Studies (PJSS) remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. All the views and opinions expressed are those of the author. Image Credit – Vajiram & Ravi.
About the Author
Sanchaly Bhattacharya is a teaching assistant at the Jindal School of International Affairs (JSIA). She is a contributing writer for various think tanks and news media outlets such as Organisation for Research on China and Asia (ORCA), Defence and Security Alert Magazine and Modern Diplomacy. She is currently pursuing Master of Arts (MA) in Diplomacy, Law & Business from O. P. Jindal Global University (JGU) and Master of Public Administration (MPA) in Governance & Public Policy from Netaji Subhash Open University, Kolkata. She holds a Bachelors degree in Geography & Economics from West Bengal State University.
Competing Interests
The author declares no competing interests.
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